What changes will next week’s election bring to housing?

But key issues remain to be resolved, including whether the right to adequate housing would be directly incorporated into Welsh law or indirectly via a duty on ministers to pay ‘due regard’ to it, or perhaps a combination of the two.

This would probably mean the right being phased in and ‘progressively realised’ over time.

And there are other barriers to implementation. Significant policy areas, such as housing benefit, are still controlled by Westminster, raising the possibility of the policy being undermined by things like the freeze in Local Housing Allowance rates and the benefit cap.

Even within Wales, local authorities will need a lot of convincing about the strategy and funding for a change that could leave them facing the costs of legal challenges over policies and decisions forced on them by their constrained finances.

Scotland could also get a right to adequate housing after 7 May, with the SNP pledging to bring back a Human Rights Bill that was put on the back burner in the last Scottish parliament. This would incorporate a range of international conventions into Scottish law and is also supported by the Scottish Greens. 

“The Greens have sought to make rent control a key dividing line between the party and Labour, and that could increase the temptation for the government to defend its left flank by introducing a form of regulation”

It’s a similar story with the second major change, where Wales could be about to follow a path already taken in Scotland by introducing a form of rent control.

Plaid is promising “fair rent setting” through “limiting annual rent increases to the lower of wage growth or consumer price index inflation, or a clearly defined equivalent benchmark”.

That’s dipping a toe in the water, but the Green Party has hinted that rent control could be one of the conditions for its support, and wants to go much further.

The Greens are promising a one-year rent freeze to be followed by rent controls allowing ministers to designate Rent Pressure Zones, where rent increases would only be allowed where landlords “deliver genuine improvements to homes”.

The rules would apply across the private rented sector, with no exemptions for mid-market or build-to-rent housing.

That last bit seems to derive directly from the debate in Scotland, where the SNP government has introduced exemptions to prioritise efforts to increase rental supply, but the Greens have accused it of giving in to “lobbying by profiteering landlords”.

The prospect of rent control in both Wales and Scotland would sharpen the debate in England as well.  

Tensions surfaced this week as the Treasury failed to deny a report that chancellor Rachel Reeves was considering a plan for a one-year rent freeze, only for Downing Street to dismiss it and say “that’s not the approach we’ll be taking”.

Housing secretary Steve Reed reiterated that “we are not looking at rent controls” in an interview on Wednesday, adding that when they were introduced in Scotland it “ended up with rents going up much higher”.

But that is a change from the position he adopted back in 2019 when he was in opposition, when he described a plan for rent caps proposed by London mayor Sadiq Khan as “a fantastic initiative” in a post on X.

“Reform has campaigned with pledges including a clampdown on immigration at a UK level, preventing “migrant HMOs”, reserving social housing “for Welsh men and women” and removing sustainability requirements for new homes”

All that uncertainty is likely to have a negative effect on new investment in build-to-rent, and could even lead to higher rents as landlords decide to increase them just in case.

This is hardly ideal timing with the Renters’ Rights Act set to be implemented today. The act includes provisions that limit rent increases to once a year, which are also open to challenge at tribunal.

In the local election campaign in England, the Greens have sought to make rent control a key dividing line between the party and Labour, and that could increase the temptation for the government to defend its left flank by introducing a form of regulation.

Meanwhile, Reform has inevitably played up the politics of housing and immigration.

Back in Wales, the party has campaigned with pledges including a clampdown on immigration at a UK level, preventing “migrant HMOs”, reserving social housing “for Welsh men and women” and removing sustainability requirements for new homes.

In line with its UK policy, local authorities would be mandated to enforce a strict 10-year residency requirement for social housing, except for service veterans, domestic abuse survivors and care leavers.

Whatever the voters decide on 7 May, major change could be on the way.

Jules Birch, columnist, Inside Housing

Read the housing pledges for the local elections in Wales

Read the housing pledges for the local elections in Scotland