Welsh housing need estimate jumps up 64% due to rise in homeless households

An official said: “A lot of that homelessness and the increase in people in temporary accommodation is as a result of us... taking that ‘no one left out’ approach, so that we’ve really lifted the lid on the levels of previously hidden homelessness that might not have been captured in the previous administrative data.”

The new analysis also estimated that between 7,800 and 9,300 additional housing units will be needed annually over the five-year period from July 2025 to June 2030.

Around 35% of this is estimated to be for affordable housing, while 65% can be met by market housing.

This newly arising need – with a central estimate of 8,700 – is higher than in the 2019-based estimates. 

The government said: “This increase reflects higher projected household growth in the 2022‑based household projections compared with the 2018‑based projections used previously. Household projections are mainly driven by population projections.”

However, growth in newly arising housing need is expected to slow down over the next 20 years, in line with a gradual reduction in projected household growth.

The government cautioned that these projections are not forecasts, as they are “based purely on past trends and assume these trends continue”.

“Such projections do not attempt to account for the effect of future policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors, such as the number of homes built,” the report added.

In a written statement, Jayne Bryant, cabinet secretary for housing and local government, said: “The figures indicate the estimated number of households in need of an additional housing unit over the period but should not be interpreted or used as housing targets.

“They are based on assumptions and do not represent policy commitments or planning requirements.

“The data in the release forms part of the evidence base for future planning in Wales and is used by the Welsh government and housing organisations to produce a picture of the overall need for additional housing units in Wales.”

Matt Dicks, director of the Chartered Institute of Housing (CIH) Cymru, said: “This update to the housing need data is much needed and shows the stark reality of Wales’ housing emergency with high levels of homelessness, rising demand for affordable homes and difficulty accessing market housing.”

However, CIH called for the data to also include detail on the size of homes needed.

Mr Dicks said: “Yet while the data does provide a useful estimate of affordable housing need, it does not provide a breakdown of the sizes and types of home that will be needed. 

“We repeatedly hear from our members that there is a shortage of one-bed and four-bed-plus homes. 

“Our manifesto, A plan for housing in Wales, outlines that as we develop homes we also need to ensure these are of the right size and type. We need this to form part of the housing need data to ensure we can develop homes of the right type and size.”

On affordable housing development, he said: “Our social housing providers are committed to developing the homes we need to meet the estimated existing unmet need but have repeatedly informed us, through our series of sector snapshot surveys, that to develop at the pace and scale needed we need to look at the current blockers to development.

“These include planning delays, sufficient levels of investment and the availability of land.”